So the 2011-2012 NHL season is finally here! Camps are opening up across North America with plenty of new faces in new places. But before I put out the same old crap everyone else does with player rankings and such, I think it’s important to go into building the right team
Today I’m going to discuss how to build a winning team. I’ve won my last 7 leagues I’ve entered, and want to share my secrets….. Or brag… OK- a little of both. Sure a little bit of luck and intuition goes into a good team- but it’s building a solid foundation that creates a winner. Most fantasy leagues are head to head weekly leagues, but many still play the “Rotisserie” style. Either way, the structure for building the team remains basically the same.
First- you need to understand how your team wins each week. Most leagues have between 11 and 15 categories in which players get scored on. Sure there is the easy ones- Goals/ Assists/ Power Play Points / Game Winning Goals. But many leagues also toss in a number of statistical categories dominated by guys you rarely hear from in the sports pages – and those guys win you championships. Many leagues use some if not all of the following stats in their league too- Penalty (PIMs), Plus/minus, shots on goal, Short handed points, and faceoffs won.
These stats also translate to goaltending- which usually make up 35-40% of all head to head points. Goaltending is critical, and I’ll address that later.
Here are my top ten secrets to winning the championship. Some of these secrets come straight from Captain Obvious – but it’s amazing how many people forget these points-
Quantity over Quality-
Guys fall in love with the superstars. Who doesn’t? But stockpiling guys who score a lot can actually kill your team. It’s about balance. You only have to win the goal scoring and assist categories by one each week to get the point. Scoring 20 goals more than the other guy is useless if he smoked you in plus /minus, PIMs, and Shorties. If you are running away in a category, trade that one dimensional player to a desperate team to bolster weak areas.
Get the top guys at that statistic/ maybe not the best at that position
Sounds so simple yet people don't do it. Sidney Crosby and the Sedin Twins might look awesome on your team, but it takes one concussion to put Sid the Kid into clown college for 5 months and your team in last place. On draft day I sort the stats on guys on the oddball stats. PIMs/ plus/ Minus/ and shots on goal.
Take Zenon Konopka. Who? This guy had 100 more penalty minutes than anyone else in the league. Dress him once or twice, hegets into 3 fights and you win the PIMs for the week. He wins faceoffs to boot! Guys like Brent Seabrook and Dustin Byflugien dominated plus/minus and shots on goal for my team last year and they were major contributors. More important than Ilya Kovalchuck, Danny Heatly, and Marion Gaborik.
Goaltending! Goaltending! Goaltending!
More important than Running Backs in football leagues. Again, depending on your league, the best Goalie might not be your guy. Some teams spend high draft picks and grab Ryan Miller or Martin Brodeur who will play more games in the year than the actual puck and ride them out. If you have 2 60-70+ start goalies and ride them all year, it might work in your favor- as it creates an additional roster spot for a skater. However, I like to concentrate my efforts on getting those 2nd tier guys on teams that just go out and win each week. It’s amazing how many of these guys I’ve plucked off waivers or drafted late. Guys like Evengi Nabokov, Jimmy Howard of Detroit, and Tim Thomas & Corey Crawford last year… none of them people had their eyes on during the draft. Hell, not even I had my eyes on them in the draft. I usually look for 3 Goalies who each give me 30 wins a year. Their save % isn’t anything to write home about, but with all those starts and all those wins, quantity takes over quality and I’m good for grabbing 4 of 5 goalier categories for the week.
Just don’t over do it. It’s useless to have a 3rd or 4th goalie who never has an opportunity to get in. Also, you can blow your week by putting in a guy if you are already ahead in most categories by a narrow margin just to see him choke on a Sunday and F%$#@ you over.
Over exposure at defense
Just because he’s the #1 blue liner on his team and averages 25 minutes a night, it doesn’t mean he’s a valuable fantasy commodity. Sure he might have 30 assists on the year- but if he’s on the ice all that time he’s going to drive down your plus/minus rating. There are a rare few ho pull those minutes and manager to stay well on the positive side of goal differential. Your top offensive weapons for the most part will most likely have a negative plus/minus as it is, so if you have the offensive firepower, get defensive defensemen. Guys like Kevin Bieska might not generate much scratch on offense, but their plus/minus and PIMs more than make up for it.
Preseason draft rankings suck – don’t use them
Most people putting these together take last year’s stats and just rank them for the following year. Hot rookies like Logan Couture and Jeff Skinner get completely overlooked. Great bargains can be found deep in the rankings because someone missed 30 games due to injury. Danny Briere was hurt most of 2008, and in 2009 I grabbed him deep in a draft. He was fantasy gold- until he got hurt again during my playoff run….Bastard!
Don’t fall in love in keeper leagues
Just because you can keep 2-3-4 players doesn’t mean you have too. Is your best player a #1 draft pick? If not toss him back. The #1 pick you get in return could be someone better, or at worst you have a shot at picking him back up.
Your best players won’t be drafted in the top 5 rounds
Guys that make or break your success are acquired via trades and via the waiver wire. I picked up guys like Tim Thomas, Chris Stewart, Logan Couture. I’m Kicking myself for not grabbing Anze Kopitar 2 years ago after he went undrafted. Waiver wire pickups made up of 1/3rd t to ½ of my winning rosters over the years.
Maximize your roster
I look at teams that play a lot of Sunday nights and also get a lot of those odd Versus games on Wednesday night. Teams like Anaheim and the NY Rangers get a lot of those dates during the year due to local arena conflicts with the NBA and other area teams. The advantage? The NHL loves to stack some nights in the schedule with 12-14 games a night and then have nights with only 2-3 games. What good is it if you have to sit 5 players every Saturday night because you have no roster spots? A benched player is a useless player.
Also- I just love getting players who play more than one position. The best is Anaheim's Bobby Ryan who was listed as a LW/RW/C on ESPN last year. .
Be careful not to overload your team at one position. I've seen drafts where teams get 6-7 players at one position, and they are handcuffed. Quantity only works when everybody plays the maximum amount of games in a week.
Hiding guys on IR
I always have a guy on my IR. If my team is healthy enough, I’ll stash a big name guy on my IR even though he’s out of action for a month. You can always cut him if he gets healthy but disappoints. But you can always find late season gold with some guys who come back after 3-4 months off. But keep an eye on them- if it looks like they are too slow to heal, toss ‘em back and find another guy to bury.
Riding the hot hand
I always have the bottom 2-3 spots on my team available to “churn” for free agent pick ups. Why hang on to a Chris Versteeg when a guy like Michael Grabner becomes Wayne Gretzky over the course of a month. Last year I picked up Clarke MacAurthur thinking he was a hot hand for a week or two. I expected to get 5-6 games out of him and toss him back- but he became harder to throw away than that 2 week old chineese food in the fridge. I kept him for 3 months because he kept chipping in.
Grab the "Stat Stuffers"
Guys Like Alexander Burrows, Dave Backes, Steve Downie, Steve Ott, and everyone's favorite sloppy seconds- Sean Avery. - I love them because they do a little bit of this, a little bit of that, and still let you dominate PIMs. Gordie Howe Hat Tricks are juast as valuable as the real ones. These guys will get it done.
Well- I hope I this was some use to you. I’ll get my player rankings out shortly- stay tuned!
 |
| Just like Running Backs Goalies win Fantasy Hockey Championships.... |
No comments:
Post a Comment